JamesThatcher
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The Week Ahead 30th May 2022
In the week ahead. I'll be looking closely at the following releases
01st June 2022 02:30 GMT Australian GDP q/q
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49R0RQJTIwJTI4UW9RJTI5
01st June 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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New Zealand Official Cash Rate May 25 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE
November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw
August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 2.00
Today's trade plan
Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 2.00%. I'll take a trade if we see a deviation of 0.25% either way from the forecast
Tradable pairs
EURNZD
NZDUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 23rd May 2022
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
25th May 2022 03:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tlo7bm49UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u
26th May 2022 12:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwQm9ycm93aW5nJTIwUmF0ZQ
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late May 19 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.
April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x
Historic deviations and their outcome
January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move
It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 4.75
Today's trade plan
Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.75%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 5.00% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see an increase to 4.50.%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR.
We should bank some nice pips if this hit.
Tradable pairs
USDZAR
ZARJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Australia Employment Change May 19 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
There are two main lines of data on this release.
Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.
Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51552/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNTUyO3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0yMCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkFVRDtyPU0x
March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUdCUEFVRDtyPVM1
February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRE5aRDtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Employment Change 30
Unemployment Rate 3.9
Today's trade plan
The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).
If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.
If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.
Tradable pairs
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Australia AU WPI (Q/Q) May 18 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 18 2020 A nice +0.3 dev created a prolonged but significant move in AUD price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTExLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSQVVEO3I9UzEw
I will use forecasts of:
WPI (Q/Q) 0.80
Today's trade plan
The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow move for maybe 15 pips on EURAUD.
Tradable pairs
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 16th May 2022
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
18th May 2022 02:30 GMT Australian WPI (Q/Q)
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49V2FnZSUyMFByaWNlJTIwSW5kZXglMjAlMjhRb1ElMjk
19th May 2022 02:30 GMT Australian Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ
19th May 2022 14:00 GMT (Approx) South African Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Mexico MEX interest Rate May 12 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx
November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 7.00
Today's trade plan
I'll be looking to take a trade if they hike further than the expected 7.00% or a sell if they only hike to 6.75% or dont hike at all.
I'll be looking to bank around 800 pips if we get a trade
Tradable pairs
USDMXN
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Core CPI m/m May 11 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.00
CPI (M/M) 0.20
CPI (Y/Y) 8.10
Today's trade plan
Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.
I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
CPI - Core (M?M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 09th May 2022
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
11th May 2022 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
12th May 2022 19:00 GMT US MEX interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Non-Farm Employment Change May 6 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.40
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 391,000
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.5
Today's trade plan
I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.
I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M
I will ignore all other lines.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United Kingdom Official Bank Rate May 5 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
Historic deviations and their outcome
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 1.00
Today's trade plan
Today the official forecast is for the rate to be hiked to 1.00% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on an deviation of 0.25% in either direction
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Norway NOK Rate Decision May 5 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 18 2020 7th May 2020
A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
March 19 2020 20th March 2020
A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.
March 19 2020 13th March 2020
An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016
The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.
Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 0.75
Today's trade plan
Today it is forecast for the rate to remain at 0.75%. All economists predict this therefore, I will take a buy if they hike to1.00% or a sell if they cut the rates to 0.50%
This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.75%
Tradable pairs
EURNOK
USDNOK
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Federal Funds Rate May 4 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
I will use forecasts of:
FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max 0.75
Today's trade plan
Today is a very rare occasion when there are varying forcasts of a change. I am using the forcast of 0.75% actual, therefore I wil take a take if the hike to 1.00% or leave the rates unchanged at 0.50%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Australia Cash Rate May 3 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 0.25
Today's trade plan
Today the forcast is to raise the rates to 0.25% Therefore i will trade either outcome, If no raise and rates remain at 0.10% i'll take a sell. If the raise further to to 0.50% I'll take a buy.
Tradable pairs
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 02nd May 2022
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
03rd May 2022 05:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
05th May 2022 09:00 GMT Norweigan Rate Decision
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
05th May 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
06th May 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
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Australia CPI q/q April 27 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.
The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/43386/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQzMzg2O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0yOCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA
January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28145/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4MTQ1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yNyUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA
July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/20676/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIwNjc2O3Q9MjAyMC0wNy0yOSUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 1.2
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 3.4
Today's trade plan
If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.
Tradable pairs
AUDUSD
EURAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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The Week Ahead 25th April 2022
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
27th April 2022 02:30 GMT Australian CPI q/q
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4UW9RJTI5
28th April 2022 08:30 GMT Swedish Intrest rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9U0U7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
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Canada Overnight Rate April 13 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.
See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 1.00
Today's trade plan
Today we're forecast for a hike in the rate to 1.00%. The market has however priced in a further hike to 1.25%, but will they go further and hike to 1.50%? That would be the preferred trade however I'll also take a sell on only a small hike as Cad should drop off if they only hike to 1.00%
Tradable pairs
CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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New Zealand Official Cash Rate April 13 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE
November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw
August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 1.25
Today's trade plan
Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 1.25%. There are varying predictions; the market has priced in a hike to 1.50% therefore I will take a sell if they increase only to 1.25% and a buy if they hike to 1.50%
I would prefer a sell.
Tradable pairs
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Core CPI m/m April 12 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.6
CPI (M/M) 1.2
Today's trade plan
Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.
I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
CPI - Core (M?M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 11th April 2022
In the week ahead I'll be closely looking at the following releases.
12th April 2022 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
13th April 2022 02:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tlo7bm49UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u
13th April 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Canada Employment Change April 8 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0wOSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA
March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33563/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzNTYzO3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xMiUyMDEzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA
I will use forecasts of:
Employment Change 80
Unemployment Rate 5.35
Today's trade plan
It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.
If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction.
I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.
Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Australia Cash Rate April 5 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 1.00
Today's trade plan
I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.
Tradable pairs
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 4th April 2022
I'll be looking closely at the following releases in the week ahead.
05th April 2022 05:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
08th April 2022 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
United States Non-Farm Employment Change April 1 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.40
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 480,000
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.5
Today's trade plan
I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.
I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M
I will ignore all other lines.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 28th March 2022
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
01st April 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
01st April 2022 15:00 GMT US ISM Manufacturing PMI
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49SVNNJTIwTWFudWZhY3R1cmluZyUyMFBNSQ
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late March 24 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.
April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x
Historic deviations and their outcome
January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move
It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 4.25
Today's trade plan
Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.25%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.50% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see no change and the rate remains at 4.00%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR.
We should bank some nice pips if this hit.
Tradable pairs
USDZAR
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United Kingdom Core CPI y/y March 23 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE
January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (Y/Y) 6.00
Today's trade plan
If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either
Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
CPI Y/Y line.
With no conflicts on any other line.
Tradable pairs
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 21st March 2022
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.
23rd March 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5
23rd March 2022 14:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
24th March 2022 09:00 GMT Norweigen Rate Decision
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
24th March 2022 13:08 GMT South African Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
24th March 2022 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
United Kingdom Official Bank Rate March 17 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
Historic deviations and their outcome
See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 0.75
Today's trade plan
Today the official forecast is for the rate to be hiked to 0.75% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on an deviation of 0.25% in either direction
43 out of 46 economists predict a hike to 0.75% so there is a small amount of doubt.
Tradable pairs
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Turkey Turkish Rate Decision March 17 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.
With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.
Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA
December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Benchmark Rate 14.00
Today's trade plan
Today there is no change expected. Therefore If they hike to 15%, I'll take a buy, If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell.
If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.
Tradable pairs
EURTRY
USDTRY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Australia Employment Change March 17 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
There are two main lines of data on this release.
Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.
Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51552/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNTUyO3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0yMCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkFVRDtyPU0x
March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUdCUEFVRDtyPVM1
February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRE5aRDtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Employment Change 37.0
Unemployment Rate 0.4
Today's trade plan
The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).
If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.
If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.
Tradable pairs
EURAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Canada Core CPI m/m March 16 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61877/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60617/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjE3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58901/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4OTAxO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.9
CPI (Y/Y) 5.5
Today's trade plan
Today, I will need a 0.2% deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.
We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 14th March 2022
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.
16th March 2022 12:30 GMT Canadian Core CPI
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
17th March 2022 00:30 GMT Australian Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ
17th March 2022 11:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ
17th March 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Canada Employment Change March 11 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0wOSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA
March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33563/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzNTYzO3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xMiUyMDEzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA
I will use forecasts of:
Employment Change 127.5
Unemployment Rate 6.2
Today's trade plan
It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.
If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction.
I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.
Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Tradable pairs
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
United States Core CPI mm March 10 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.4
CPI (M/M) 0.8
CPI (Y/Y) 7.9
Today's trade plan
Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.
I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
CPI - Core (M?M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Non-Farm Employment Change March 4 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 378,000
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.80
Today's trade plan
I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.
I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M
I will ignore all other lines.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Canada Overnight Rate March 2 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 0.5
Today's trade plan
There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to hike rates at 0.50%
Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains at 0.25% or a buy if they increase to 0.75%
Tradable pairs
CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Australia Cash Rate March 1 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 2020
A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.
Check out the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 0.10
Today's trade plan
I will trade from a 0.15% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.
Tradable pairs
AUDUSD
EURAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 8th February 2022
In the week ahead I'll be closely looking at the following releases
01st March 2022 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
02nd March 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
04th March 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
- Comments
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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New Zealand Official Cash Rate February 23 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE
November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw
August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 1.00
Today's trade plan
Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 1.00%. There are varying predictions; however, there is about a 30% chance of a further hike to 1.25%.
I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.25% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.75% In either scenario, I would expect to see an unprecedented move on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time. I would prefer a no hike trade.
Tradable pairs
AUDNZD
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 21st February 2022
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.
23rd February 2022 01:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tlo7bm49UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u
24th February 2022 16:00 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
- Comments
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Canada Core CPI m/m February 16 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61877/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60617/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjE3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58901/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4OTAxO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.6
CPI (Y/Y) 4.8
Today's trade plan
Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.
We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United Kingdom Core CPI y/y February 16 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE
January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.3
CPI (M/M) -0.2
CPI (Y/Y) 5.4
Today's trade plan
If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either
Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
CPI Y/Y line.
With no conflicts on any other line.
Tradable pairs
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United Kingdom Unemployment Rate February 15 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous three months.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ
I will use forecasts of:
Avg Earnings - ex bonus 3.8
ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) 4.10
Today's trade plan
I would like to see a deviation of at least 0.2 on the Unemployment Rate with a supporting deviation from Average Earnings of at least 0.2% If we get these conditions we should see a sustained move lasting a few minutes after the release.
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 14th February 2022
In the week ahead, I'll be closely looking at the following releases:-
15th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Claimant Count Change
16th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI
16th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales
15th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Claimant Count Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ
16th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyME1vTSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
16th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMFJldGFpbCUyMFNhbGVzJTIwJTI4TW9NJTI5
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Non-Farm Employment Change February 4 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 125
Unemployment Rate 3.9
Today's trade plan
Today we have a heavily weighted bias on the downside forecast therefore sells would be dangerous I want to see a deviation of + 200k to take a buy only.
I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate February 3 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.
Check out the price action here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CNB Repo Rate 4.5
Today's trade plan
There is a forecast increase to the rate today to 4.5%. I will take a trade in either direction if we see a deviation of 0.5% from the forecast.
Tradable pairs
USDCZK
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
United Kingdom Official Bank Rate February 3 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
Historic deviations and their outcome
See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 0.50%
Today's trade plan
Today the official forecast is a hike to 0.50%
Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on a deviation of 0.25% in either direction.
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Australia Cash Rate February 1 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 2020
A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.
Check out the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 1.00
Today's trade plan
I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.
Tradable pairs
AUDUSD
EURAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
The Week Ahead 31st January 2022
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.
01st February 2022 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
03rd February 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
03rd February 2022 13:30 GMT Czech Repo Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
04th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late January 27 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.
April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x
Historic deviations and their outcome
January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move
It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 0.40
Today's trade plan
Today it's forecast to see an increase to the rate to 4.00% therefore if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.25% or more I will take a trade on UDSZAR.
I'm not looking to trade if we don't see an increase or the increase is as expected.
Tradable pairs
USDZAR
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Canada Overnight Rate January 26 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 0.25
Today's trade plan
There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to remain at 0.25%
The average prediction is 0.36% With forecasts between 0.50% to 0.25%
Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains the same or a buy if they increase to 0.50%
Tradable pairs
AUDCAD
CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Hungary HUF Interest Rate January 25 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy
June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 2.7
Today's trade plan
Today I will use a forecast of 2.7%, which is a hike of 0.3%
I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes, so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to sell if the actual is 2.5% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more.
We should see 250 pips from this report if we get a trigger.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
The Week Ahead 24th January 2022
I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.
25th January 2022 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
26th January 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
27th January 2022 13:00 GMT South African Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Norway NOK Rate Decision January 20 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 18 2020 7th May 2020
A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
March 19 2020 20th March 2020
A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.
March 19 2020 13th March 2020
An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016
The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.
Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 0.50
Today's trade plan
Today it is forecast for the rate to remain at 0.50%. All economists predict this therefore, I will take a buy if they hike to 0.75% or a sell if they cut the rates to 0.25%
This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50%
Tradable pairs
EURNOK
USDNOK
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
United Kingdom Core CPI y/y January 19 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE
January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.9
CPI (M/M) 0.3
CPI (Y/Y) 5.2
Today's trade plan
If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either
Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
CPI Y/Y line.
With no conflicts on any other line.
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
This week, i'll be looking closely at the following release.
19th January 2022 07:00 am United Kingdom Core CPI
See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOFlvWSUyOQ
20th January 2022 09:00 am Norwegian Interest Rate Decision
See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
United States Core CPI m/m January 12 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 5.4
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 7.0
Today's trade plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD or EURUSD
I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
The Week Ahead 10th January 2022
This week, I'll be looking closely at the following release.
12th January 2022 13:30 GMT US CPI
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5
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United States Non-Farm Employment Change January 7 2022
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.4
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 433
Unemployment Rate 4.1
Today's trade plan
Today I want to see a deviation of +/- 220k to take a trade in the relative direction.
I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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The Week Ahead 3rd January 2022
Happy New Year, Everyone.
I hope you all had a great festive season and all the best for 2022.
Traditionally my first trade of the year is NFP which lands this Friday. Therefore this week, i'll be looking closely at the following release.
7th January 2022 13:30 GMT Us Non-farm Payrolls
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
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United Kingdom Official Bank Rate December 16 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
I will use forecasts of:
Official Bank Bate 0.10%
Today's trade plan
Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10%, but many economists expected an increase to 0.25%. However Omicron covid variant has cast doubt on that. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.25% or more.
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
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JamesThatcher - Today we had a first, a surprise hike to the Bank of England base rate. A hike was anticipated to help curb high inflation; however, with the emergence of the Omicron variant widely reported in the Uk media and government announcement of new restrictions, the markets expected this to be pushed back to the new year. However, it was almost a unanimous vote to act now. Great for us. I banked around 75 pips. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=69074;t=2021-12-16%2012:0:00.0;s=GBPUSD;r=S1 See the video at : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNunKwJ2rsg
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Mexico MEX interest Rate December 16 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx
November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx
August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTE1JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 5.25
Today's trade plan
Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.
I'm using an average forecast of 5.33%
Therefore if we see a hike to 5.25% I will not take a trade.
If we see a hike of 5.50 % or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 700 pips.
If we see no hike and the rate remains at 5.00 % I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips
Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.
Tradable pairs
USDMXN
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Turkey Turkish Rate Decision December 16 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.
With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.
Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA
December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Benchmark Rate 14.00
Today's trade plan
Turkey's Central bank recently defended the key level and intervened in the markets which make this slightly more difficult to call.
We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 13.0%, but I'll take the median of the forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.
If it remains at 15%, I'll take a buy
If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell.
If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.
Tradable pairs
EURTRY
USDTRY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Norway NOK Rate Decision December 16 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 18 2020 7th May 2020
A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
March 19 2020 20th March 2020
A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.
March 19 2020 13th March 2020
An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy, is the first cut to interest rates since 2016
The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic started to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.
Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020 which I'm glad to say is now behind us and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 0.50
Today's trade plan
Today it is forecast for a hike to the rate to 0.50% Most economists predict this therefore I will take a buy if they hike more to 0.75% or a sell if they don't hike and leave the rates at 0.25%
This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50%
Tradable pairs
EURNOK
USDNOK
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Federal Funds Rate December 15 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
I will use forecasts of:
FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max 0.25
Today's trade plan
If we see a change to the rate today of 0.25 in either direction I will take a trade and expect to see a sustained move for some time.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Crude Oil Inventories December 15 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1250
DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1700 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = -0800
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2500 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +400
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Canada Core CPI m/m December 15 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61877/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60617/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjE3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58901/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4OTAxO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 4.7
Today's trade plan
Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.
We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United Kingdom Core CPI y/y December 15 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE
January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.7
CPI (Y/Y) 4.8
Today's trade plan
If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Hungary HUF Interest Rate December 14 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy
July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
See the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 2.5
Today's trade plan
Today I will use a forecast of 2.5% which is a hike of 0.4%
There are varying predictions
LOW - 2.3%
HIGH - 3.3%
EST - 2.5%
AVG - 2.59%
I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.3% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 13th December 2021
In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
14th December 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
15th December 2021 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOFlvWSUyOQ
15th December 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Core CPI m/m
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
15th December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
15th December 2021 19:00 GMT US Federal Funds Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
16th December 2021 09:00 GMT Norwegian Rate Decision
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
16th December 2021 11:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ
16th December 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
16th December 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican interest Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Core CPI mm December 10 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.9
CPI (M/M) 0.7
CPI (Y/Y) 6.8
Today's trade plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD or EURUSD
I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Crude Oil Inventories December 8 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +3000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1521 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = -3100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2000 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Canada Overnight Rate December 8 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.
See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 0.25
Today's trade plan
All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.
Tradable pairs
AUDCAD
CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
NZDCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Poland Interest Rate Decision December 8 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the PLN, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the PLN.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a 0.25% hike above the forecasted increase of 0.25%. Therefore a 0.50% basis point increase to the rate. We saw a 264 pip move in the first minute.
Check out the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2MzY1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjUwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJQTE47cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
PL Rates Statement 1.75
Today's trade plan
Today I'll be looking for a -/+ 0.50% deviation from the forecast of a 1.75% interest rate increase to trade in the relevant direction.
So if we get an actual of 2.25% I'll take a buy or 1.25% to take a sell.
Tradable pairs
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 06 December 2021
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
07th December 2021 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
08th December 2021 12:00 GMT Polish Interest Rate Decision
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9UEw7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
08th December 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
08th December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
10th December 2021 13:30 GMT US Consumer Prices Index
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ
-
0
0
- Comments
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Non-Farm Employment Change December 3 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.4
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 550,000
Unemployment Rate 4.5
Today's trade plan
Today I want to see a deviation of +/- 70k to take a trade in the relative direction.
I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
The Week Ahead 29 November 2021
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
1st December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
3rd December 2021 13:30 GMT Us Non-farm Payrolls
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
- Comments
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Pliteruning - Important information for you, if you want to get some BTC instantly by placing a market order, or wait for certain conditions for order execution with the limit order option, the website https://cex.io/buy-bitcoins offers a unique and simple solution. Be sure to follow the link, because there is a lot of interest here.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Crude Oil Inventories December 1 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories +750
DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1450 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = -700
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0332 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +2200
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Sweden SWE Intrest rate November 25 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/13626/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEzNjI2O3Q9MjAxOS0xMi0xOSUyMDg6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFNFSztyPVM1
December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/2446/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0NDY7dD0yMDE4LTEyLTIwJTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEU0VLO3I9UzMw
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 0.00
Today's trade plan
No expected change today so if we did see a change of +/- 0.25% basis points to the Interest Rate then I would take a trade accordingly. I would expect to see a prolonged move which should last some time.
Tradable pairs
EURSEK
USDSEK
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Crude Oil Inventories November 24 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0
DOE Gasoline Inventories 0
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1800 (Bloomberg)
2) API Actual Crude = +2300
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -400 (Bloomberg)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +600
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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New Zealand Official Cash Rate November 24 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE
November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw
August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 0.75
Today's trade plan
Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 0.75%. There are varying predictions; however, the average is 0.77%.
No economist predict no change; therefore, I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.00% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.50 %
If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50%. We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.
If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.
If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.
If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.
Tradable pairs
AUDNZD
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDCHF
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 22nd November 2021
In the Week ahead, I will be closely watching the following releases.
24th November 2021 1:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tlo7bm49UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u24th
November 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
25th November 2021 08:30 GMT Swedish Intrest rate
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9U0U7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
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South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late November 18 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.
April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x
Historic deviations and their outcome
January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move
It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 3.75
Today's trade plan
We have varying forecasts today as follows: -
High = 3.75
Low = 3.5
Prev = 3.5
Avg = 3.63
Therefore I will use a forecast of 3.75% therefore we will need to see a hike to the rates to 4.00% to take a trade.
Tradable pairs
USDZAR
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Turkey Turkish Rate Decision November 18 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.
With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.
Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA
December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Benchmark Rate 15.00
Today's trade plan
With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan, sending mixed messages about the Central bank's independence demonstrates the questionable behaviour of Turkeys leader. Normally leaders stay out of monetary policy.
We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 16.0%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.
If it remains at 16%, I'll take a buy
If they cut to 14%, I'll take a sell.
If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.
Tradable pairs
EURTRY
USDTRY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
United States Crude Oil Inventories November 17 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories 1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1200 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = +700
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -750 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Hungary HUF Interest Rate November 16 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy
July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
See the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 2.1
Today's trade plan
Today's official forecast is 2.1% which is a hike of 0.3%
There are varying predictions
Low is 1.95% to High is 2.7%
The Average is 2.18%
I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.0% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.5% or more.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
The Week Ahead 15th November 2021
In the week ahead, I'll be looking at the following releases.
16th November 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
17th November 2021 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5
17th November 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
18th November 2021 11:00 GMT Turkish Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ
18th November 2021 13:08* GMT South African Interest Rate
*(Approx, come out up to 20 minutes late)
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
- Comments
- No comments yet.
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
-
Mexico MEX interest Rate November 11 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx
November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx
August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTE1JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 5.0
Today's trade plan
Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.
Seventeen economists predict a hike to 5.00% but five predict a hike further to 5.25%
I'm using an average forecast of 5.05%
Therefore if we see a hike to 5.00% I will not take a trade.
If we see a hike of 5.05% or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 1000 pips.
If we see no hike and the rate remains at 4.75% I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips
Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.
Tradable pairs
USDMXN
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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United States Core CPI m/m November 10 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.30
CPI (M/M) 0.60
CPI (Y/Y) 5.90
Today's trade plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.
I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
- Comments
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JamesThatcher - Today, we saw a positive deviation from the headline number Core CPI M/M of 0.2%, supported by deviations on all secondary lines. We saw a lovely spike down about 30 pips before it pulled back slightly, then continuing and finally consolidating between 1.3490 to 1.3480 I cashed out reasonably early as it only just gave me a trigger, banking around 25 - 30 pips after about 30 seconds. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=66483;t=2021-11-10%2013:30:00.0;s=GBPUSD;r=S1 See the video at : https://youtu.be/66wr8kmLGns
- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Crude Oil Inventories November 10 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0.00
DOE Gasoline Inventories -500
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
DOE Trade Plan
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1600 BB
2) API Actual Crude = -2500
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1250 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +600
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 8th November 2021
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
10th November 2021 15:30 GMT USA Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
11th November 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United States Non-Farm Employment Change November 5 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Unemployment Rate 4.7
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 450
Today's trade plan
Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction.
I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate November 4 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.
Check out the price action here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CNB Repo Rate 2.25
Today's trade plan
Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 2.00%, a 0.50% hike to the current Interest Rate. There are some opinions out there that they might increase more to 2.25% so I will only take a buy if we see a hike to 2.50%
Tradable pairs
EURCZK
USDCZK
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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United Kingdom Official Bank Rate November 4 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 0.10
Today's trade plan
Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10% but many economists expect an increase to the rate to 0.25%. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.20% or more.
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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What does the data mean to the market?
The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 4 2021 A -0.2 Deviation from Unemployment created a wonderful move unopposed by the Employment Change number. NZD pairs strengthened for a good 5 mins!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49879/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5ODc5O3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0wNCUyMDIyOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TMTA
February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.
I saw some movement before the delivery of the news, which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early, but I held my nerve this time, and it paid off.
Overall the price action was excellent.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26836/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2ODM2O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0wMiUyMDIxOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TNQ
I will use forecasts of:
Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.4
Unemployment Rate 3.9
Today's trade plan
If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.
Tradable pairs
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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What does the data mean to the market?
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 3 2020 A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.
Check out the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Statement 0.10
Today's trade plan
I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.
Tradable pairs
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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- Account: 42 SHARES. +0
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The Week Ahead 1st November 2021
In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
02nd November 2021 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
03rd November 2021 14:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
04th November 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
04th November 2021 13:30 GMT Czeck CNB Repo Rate
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
04th November 2021 12:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
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