The Week Ahead 27th September 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

29th September 2021 15:30 GMT Us Crude Oil Inventories

Check out the history and charts of the report.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

30th September 2021 13:30 GMT Czech CNB Repo Rate

Check out the history and charts of the report.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

30th September 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate

Check out the history and charts of the report.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

Turkey Turkish Rate Decision September 23 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

October 22 2020 Today we saw a -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/23557/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIzNTU3O3Q9MjAyMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate 19



Today's trade plan

22 out of 23 economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%

1 Says it'll move to 18.5%. It'll be a shock if its anything less than 19%

If we get a change of 0.5 in either direction, I'll take a trade.





Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late September 23 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report. Historic deviations and their outcome

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

See charts here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 3.5

Today's trade plan
If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction, then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.

Tradable pairs
USDZAR

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

United States Crude Oil Inventories September 22 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


Historic deviations and their outcome

September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.


Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62215/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyMjE1O3Q9MjAyMS04LTI1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61866/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODY2O3Q9MjAyMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4500
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2450 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -6100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1472 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -0400


Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

The Week Ahead 20th September 2021

In the week ahead I'll be looking closely at the following releases

22nd Sept 2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

23rd Sept 2021 12:00 Turkish Interest Rate

See the report history here: -https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwTGVuZGluZyUyMFJhdGU

23rd Sept 2021 14:00 South African Interest Rate

See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24