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05/30/22 - 05:16 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
05/24/22 - 06:36 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate May 25 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 2.00



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 2.00%. I'll take a trade if we see a deviation of 0.25% either way from the forecast


    Tradable pairs

    EURNZD
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6781 views
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05/24/22 - 01:12 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
05/19/22 - 05:05 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late May 19 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 4.75



    Today's trade plan

    Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.75%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 5.00% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see an increase to 4.50.%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR.

    We should bank some nice pips if this hit.





    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR
    ZARJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6754 views
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05/18/22 - 06:14 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Australia Employment Change May 19 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    There are two main lines of data on this release.

    Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

    Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51552/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNTUyO3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0yMCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkFVRDtyPU0x

    March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUdCUEFVRDtyPVM1

    February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRE5aRDtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change 30
    Unemployment Rate 3.9



    Today's trade plan

    The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

    If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

    If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



    Tradable pairs

    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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05/17/22 - 05:45 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Australia AU WPI (Q/Q) May 18 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

    A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 18 2020 A nice +0.3 dev created a prolonged but significant move in AUD price action.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTExLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9RVVSQVVEO3I9UzEw




    I will use forecasts of:

    WPI (Q/Q) 0.80



    Today's trade plan

    The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.

    I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow move for maybe 15 pips on EURAUD.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    7194 views
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05/16/22 - 07:24 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
05/12/22 - 10:24 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Mexico MEX interest Rate May 12 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 7.00



    Today's trade plan

    I'll be looking to take a trade if they hike further than the expected 7.00% or a sell if they only hike to 6.75% or dont hike at all.

    I'll be looking to bank around 800 pips if we get a trade



    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11663 views
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05/11/22 - 04:40 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Core CPI m/m May 11 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.00
    CPI (M/M) 0.20
    CPI (Y/Y) 8.10



    Today's trade plan

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.

    I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    CPI - Core (M?M)
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11845 views
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05/09/22 - 08:45 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
05/06/22 - 04:42 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change May 6 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.40
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 391,000
    US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.5



    Today's trade plan

    I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.

    I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M

    I will ignore all other lines.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    16097 views
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05/05/22 - 03:06 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United Kingdom Official Bank Rate May 5 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

    See the report history here :
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    Historic deviations and their outcome




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 1.00



    Today's trade plan

    Today the official forecast is for the rate to be hiked to 1.00% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on an deviation of 0.25% in either direction




    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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05/05/22 - 12:33 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Norway NOK Rate Decision May 5 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.



    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 18 2020 7th May 2020

    A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    March 19 2020 20th March 2020

    A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.


    March 19 2020 13th March 2020

    An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016

    The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

    Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.75



    Today's trade plan

    Today it is forecast for the rate to remain at 0.75%. All economists predict this therefore, I will take a buy if they hike to1.00% or a sell if they cut the rates to 0.50%

    This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.75%


    Tradable pairs

    EURNOK
    USDNOK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    15365 views
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05/04/22 - 10:29 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Federal Funds Rate May 4 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome


    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    I will use forecasts of:

    FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max 0.75



    Today's trade plan


    Today is a very rare occasion when there are varying forcasts of a change. I am using the forcast of 0.75% actual, therefore I wil take a take if the hike to 1.00% or leave the rates unchanged at 0.50%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    14850 views
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05/02/22 - 08:49 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Australia Cash Rate May 3 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forcast is to raise the rates to 0.25% Therefore i will trade either outcome, If no raise and rates remain at 0.10% i'll take a sell. If the raise further to to 0.50% I'll take a buy.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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05/02/22 - 03:27 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
04/26/22 - 05:38 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Australia CPI q/q April 27 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

    The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/43386/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQzMzg2O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0yOCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA

    January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28145/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4MTQ1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yNyUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA

    July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/20676/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIwNjc2O3Q9MjAyMC0wNy0yOSUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 1.2
    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 3.4



    Today's trade plan

    If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDUSD
    EURAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    10395 views
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04/25/22 - 07:24 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
04/13/22 - 06:23 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Canada Overnight Rate April 13 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ





    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 1.00



    Today's trade plan

    Today we're forecast for a hike in the rate to 1.00%. The market has however priced in a further hike to 1.25%, but will they go further and hike to 1.50%? That would be the preferred trade however I'll also take a sell on only a small hike as Cad should drop off if they only hike to 1.00%


    Tradable pairs

    CADJPY
    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11542 views
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04/12/22 - 06:15 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate April 13 2022


    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 1.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 1.25%. There are varying predictions; the market has priced in a hike to 1.50% therefore I will take a sell if they increase only to 1.25% and a buy if they hike to 1.50%

    I would prefer a sell.


    Tradable pairs

    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11451 views
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04/12/22 - 04:53 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Core CPI m/m April 12 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.6
    CPI (M/M) 1.2



    Today's trade plan

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.

    I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    CPI - Core (M?M)
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11769 views
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04/11/22 - 07:38 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
04/08/22 - 04:56 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Canada Employment Change April 8 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0wOSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA

    March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33563/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzNTYzO3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xMiUyMDEzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change 80
    Unemployment Rate 5.35



    Today's trade plan

    It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.

    If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction.

    I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.

    Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    10011 views
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04/04/22 - 08:51 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Australia Cash Rate April 5 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 1.00



    Today's trade plan

    I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    8851 views
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04/04/22 - 08:43 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
04/01/22 - 04:57 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change April 1 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.40
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 480,000
    US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.5



    Today's trade plan

    I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.

    I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M

    I will ignore all other lines.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    9878 views
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03/29/22 - 01:57 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
03/24/22 - 05:27 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late March 24 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart, the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 4.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today it's forecast to see an increase to 4.25%; therefore, if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.50% or more, I will take a buy which will be a sell on UDSZAR. Or if we see no change and the rate remains at 4.00%, I will take a sell, which is a buy on USDZAR.

    We should bank some nice pips if this hit.





    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    10708 views
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03/22/22 - 11:36 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United Kingdom Core CPI y/y March 23 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE

    January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (Y/Y) 6.00



    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either

    Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
    CPI Y/Y line.

    With no conflicts on any other line.



    Tradable pairs

    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    10684 views
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03/21/22 - 10:01 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
03/17/22 - 04:23 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United Kingdom Official Bank Rate March 17 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    See the report history here :
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.75



    Today's trade plan

    Today the official forecast is for the rate to be hiked to 0.75% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on an deviation of 0.25% in either direction

    43 out of 46 economists predict a hike to 0.75% so there is a small amount of doubt.


    Tradable pairs

    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11013 views
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03/17/22 - 03:19 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Turkey Turkish Rate Decision March 17 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 14.00



    Today's trade plan

    Today there is no change expected. Therefore If they hike to 15%, I'll take a buy, If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell.

    If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11027 views
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03/16/22 - 04:47 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Australia Employment Change March 17 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    There are two main lines of data on this release.

    Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

    Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51552/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNTUyO3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0yMCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkFVRDtyPU0x

    March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUdCUEFVRDtyPVM1

    February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xOCUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRE5aRDtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change 37.0
    Unemployment Rate 0.4



    Today's trade plan

    The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

    If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

    If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



    Tradable pairs

    EURAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    10947 views
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03/16/22 - 04:52 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Canada Core CPI m/m March 16 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61877/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ

    July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60617/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjE3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ

    June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58901/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4OTAxO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.9
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.5



    Today's trade plan

    Today, I will need a 0.2% deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.

    We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.




    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11041 views
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03/15/22 - 09:26 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
03/11/22 - 04:43 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Canada Employment Change March 11 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0wOSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA

    March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33563/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzNTYzO3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xMiUyMDEzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMzA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change 127.5
    Unemployment Rate 6.2



    Today's trade plan

    It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.

    If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction.

    I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.

    Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine.


    Tradable pairs

    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    19462 views
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03/10/22 - 04:50 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Core CPI mm March 10 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.4
    CPI (M/M) 0.8
    CPI (Y/Y) 7.9



    Today's trade plan

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.

    I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    CPI - Core (M?M)
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    19439 views
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03/04/22 - 05:12 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change March 4 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 378,000
    US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.80



    Today's trade plan

    I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.

    I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M

    I will ignore all other lines.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    19885 views
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03/02/22 - 04:30 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Canada Overnight Rate March 2 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

    See the report history here

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ





    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.5



    Today's trade plan

    There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to hike rates at 0.50%

    Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains at 0.25% or a buy if they increase to 0.75%


    Tradable pairs

    CADJPY
    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    21794 views
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02/28/22 - 06:51 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Australia Cash Rate March 1 2022
    What does the data mean to the market?

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 2020

    A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.
    Check out the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ



    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.10



    Today's trade plan

    I will trade from a 0.15% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDUSD
    EURAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    22667 views
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02/28/22 - 02:57 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
02/22/22 - 11:22 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate February 23 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 1.00



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 1.00%. There are varying predictions; however, there is about a 30% chance of a further hike to 1.25%.

    I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.25% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.75% In either scenario, I would expect to see an unprecedented move on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time. I would prefer a no hike trade.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    12119 views
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02/22/22 - 05:42 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
02/16/22 - 04:55 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Canada Core CPI m/m February 16 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61877/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ

    July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60617/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjE3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ

    June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58901/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4OTAxO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.6
    CPI (Y/Y) 4.8



    Today's trade plan

    Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.

    We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.




    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    14381 views
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02/15/22 - 10:15 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Core CPI y/y February 16 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE

    January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.3
    CPI (M/M) -0.2
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.4



    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either

    Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
    CPI Y/Y line.

    With no conflicts on any other line.



    Tradable pairs

    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    14232 views
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02/14/22 - 10:37 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Unemployment Rate February 15 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous three months.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

    See the report history here

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Avg Earnings - ex bonus 3.8
    ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) 4.10


    Today's trade plan

    I would like to see a deviation of at least 0.2 on the Unemployment Rate with a supporting deviation from Average Earnings of at least 0.2% If we get these conditions we should see a sustained move lasting a few minutes after the release.


    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

    14241 views
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02/14/22 - 03:44 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
02/04/22 - 05:10 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change February 4 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 125
    Unemployment Rate 3.9



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have a heavily weighted bias on the downside forecast therefore sells would be dangerous I want to see a deviation of + 200k to take a buy only.

    I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6643 views
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02/03/22 - 05:09 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate February 3 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.

    Check out the price action here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    CNB Repo Rate 4.5

    Today's trade plan

    There is a forecast increase to the rate today to 4.5%. I will take a trade in either direction if we see a deviation of 0.5% from the forecast.

    Tradable pairs

    USDCZK

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    7018 views
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02/03/22 - 03:20 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Official Bank Rate February 3 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
    Historic deviations and their outcome

    See the report history here :

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.50%


    Today's trade plan

    Today the official forecast is a hike to 0.50%
    Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on a deviation of 0.25% in either direction.


    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    7086 views
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01/31/22 - 07:01 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Australia Cash Rate February 1 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 2020
    A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.

    Check out the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ

    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 1.00

    Today's trade plan

    I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.

    Tradable pairs

    AUDUSD
    EURAUD

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6682 views
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01/31/22 - 03:10 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
01/27/22 - 04:35 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late January 27 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.40



    Today's trade plan

    Today it's forecast to see an increase to the rate to 4.00% therefore if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.25% or more I will take a trade on UDSZAR.

    I'm not looking to trade if we don't see an increase or the increase is as expected.


    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6786 views
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01/26/22 - 06:32 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Canada Overnight Rate January 26 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ

    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.25


    Today's trade plan

    There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to remain at 0.25%
    The average prediction is 0.36% With forecasts between 0.50% to 0.25%
    Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains the same or a buy if they increase to 0.50%

    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    CADJPY
    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6427 views
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01/25/22 - 04:17 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Hungary HUF Interest Rate January 25 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy

    June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x

    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 2.7


    Today's trade plan

    Today I will use a forecast of 2.7%, which is a hike of 0.3%

    I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes, so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to sell if the actual is 2.5% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more.
    We should see 250 pips from this report if we get a trigger.


    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher
    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6297 views
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01/24/22 - 02:50 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
01/20/22 - 12:09 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Norway NOK Rate Decision January 20 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.



    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 18 2020 7th May 2020

    A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    March 19 2020 20th March 2020

    A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.


    March 19 2020 13th March 2020

    An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016

    The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

    Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..





    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.50



    Today's trade plan

    Today it is forecast for the rate to remain at 0.50%. All economists predict this therefore, I will take a buy if they hike to 0.75% or a sell if they cut the rates to 0.25%

    This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50%


    Tradable pairs

    EURNOK
    USDNOK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5680 views
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01/18/22 - 10:20 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Core CPI y/y January 19 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE

    January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.9
    CPI (M/M) 0.3
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.2



    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either

    Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
    CPI Y/Y line.

    With no conflicts on any other line.



    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5722 views
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01/17/22 - 07:45 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
01/12/22 - 02:43 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Core CPI m/m January 12 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 5.4
    CPI (M/M) 0.4
    CPI (Y/Y) 7.0



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD or EURUSD

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6076 views
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01/10/22 - 04:55 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
01/07/22 - 03:29 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change January 7 2022

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.4
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 433
    Unemployment Rate 4.1



    Today's trade plan

    Today I want to see a deviation of +/- 220k to take a trade in the relative direction.

    I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6743 views
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01/04/22 - 04:09 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
12/18/21 - 02:42 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Official Bank Rate December 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

    See the report history here :
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    I will use forecasts of:

    Official Bank Bate 0.10%


    Today's trade plan

    Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10%, but many economists expected an increase to 0.25%. However Omicron covid variant has cast doubt on that. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.25% or more.


    Tradable pairs
    EURGBP
    GBPUSD

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    8132 views
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  • JamesThatcher - Today we had a first, a surprise hike to the Bank of England base rate. A hike was anticipated to help curb high inflation; however, with the emergence of the Omicron variant widely reported in the Uk media and government announcement of new restrictions, the markets expected this to be pushed back to the new year. However, it was almost a unanimous vote to act now. Great for us. I banked around 75 pips. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=69074;t=2021-12-16%2012:0:00.0;s=GBPUSD;r=S1 See the video at : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNunKwJ2rsg
12/16/21 - 10:13 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Mexico MEX interest Rate December 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTE1JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 5.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.

    I'm using an average forecast of 5.33%

    Therefore if we see a hike to 5.25% I will not take a trade.

    If we see a hike of 5.50 % or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 700 pips.

    If we see no hike and the rate remains at 5.00 % I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips

    Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.





    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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12/16/21 - 02:16 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Turkey Turkish Rate Decision December 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 14.00



    Today's trade plan

    Turkey's Central bank recently defended the key level and intervened in the markets which make this slightly more difficult to call.


    We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 13.0%, but I'll take the median of the forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.



    If it remains at 15%, I'll take a buy
    If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell.

    If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6533 views
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12/15/21 - 11:46 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Norway NOK Rate Decision December 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.



    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 18 2020 7th May 2020

    A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

    March 19 2020 20th March 2020

    A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.

    March 19 2020 13th March 2020

    An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy, is the first cut to interest rates since 2016

    The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic started to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

    Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020 which I'm glad to say is now behind us and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.50



    Today's trade plan

    Today it is forecast for a hike to the rate to 0.50% Most economists predict this therefore I will take a buy if they hike more to 0.75% or a sell if they don't hike and leave the rates at 0.25%

    This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50%


    Tradable pairs

    EURNOK
    USDNOK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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12/15/21 - 10:35 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Federal Funds Rate December 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome


    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24


    I will use forecasts of:

    FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max 0.25



    Today's trade plan

    If we see a change to the rate today of 0.25 in either direction I will take a trade and expect to see a sustained move for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6286 views
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12/15/21 - 05:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories December 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1250
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1700 (bb)
    2) API Actual Crude = -0800
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2500 (bb)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +400


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6431 views
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12/15/21 - 04:41 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Canada Core CPI m/m December 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61877/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ

    July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60617/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjE3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yOCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ

    June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58901/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4OTAxO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.4
    CPI (Y/Y) 4.7



    Today's trade plan

    Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.

    We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.




    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6445 views
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12/14/21 - 10:39 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United Kingdom Core CPI y/y December 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0xNyUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9TTE

    January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yMCUyMDc6MDowMC4wO3M9R0JQVVNEO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.7
    CPI (Y/Y) 4.8



    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.



    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5546 views
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12/14/21 - 04:34 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Hungary HUF Interest Rate December 14 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy

    July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    See the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x



    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 2.5



    Today's trade plan

    Today I will use a forecast of 2.5% which is a hike of 0.4%

    There are varying predictions
    LOW - 2.3%
    HIGH - 3.3%
    EST - 2.5%
    AVG - 2.59%

    I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.3% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more.





    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

    5944 views
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12/14/21 - 12:41 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
12/10/21 - 04:49 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Core CPI mm December 10 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.9
    CPI (M/M) 0.7
    CPI (Y/Y) 6.8



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD or EURUSD

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5827 views
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12/08/21 - 07:23 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories December 8 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +3000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1521 (bb)
    2) API Actual Crude = -3100
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2000 (bb)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6553 views
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12/08/21 - 06:24 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Canada Overnight Rate December 8 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.25



    Today's trade plan

    All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    CADJPY
    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    NZDCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6562 views
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12/08/21 - 05:43 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Poland Interest Rate Decision December 8 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The National Bank of Poland (NBP) Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the PLN, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the PLN.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a 0.25% hike above the forecasted increase of 0.25%. Therefore a 0.50% basis point increase to the rate. We saw a 264 pip move in the first minute.

    Check out the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2MzY1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjUwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJQTE47cj1NMQ



    I will use forecasts of:

    PL Rates Statement 1.75



    Today's trade plan

    Today I'll be looking for a -/+ 0.50% deviation from the forecast of a 1.75% interest rate increase to trade in the relevant direction.

    So if we get an actual of 2.25% I'll take a buy or 1.25% to take a sell.


    Tradable pairs



    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6568 views
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12/06/21 - 03:20 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
12/03/21 - 04:33 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change December 3 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.4
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 550,000
    Unemployment Rate 4.5



    Today's trade plan

    Today I want to see a deviation of +/- 70k to take a trade in the relative direction.

    I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6906 views
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12/01/21 - 09:02 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
12/01/21 - 06:26 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories December 1 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1450 (bb)
    2) API Actual Crude = -700
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0332 (bb)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +2200


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6873 views
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11/24/21 - 11:55 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Sweden SWE Intrest rate November 25 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/13626/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEzNjI2O3Q9MjAxOS0xMi0xOSUyMDg6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFNFSztyPVM1

    December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/2446/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0NDY7dD0yMDE4LTEyLTIwJTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEU0VLO3I9UzMw




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.00



    Today's trade plan

    No expected change today so if we did see a change of +/- 0.25% basis points to the Interest Rate then I would take a trade accordingly. I would expect to see a prolonged move which should last some time.


    Tradable pairs

    EURSEK
    USDSEK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6227 views
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11/24/21 - 06:48 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories November 24 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0
    DOE Gasoline Inventories 0



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1800 (Bloomberg)
    2) API Actual Crude = +2300
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -400 (Bloomberg)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6790 views
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11/23/21 - 04:21 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate November 24 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.75



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 0.75%. There are varying predictions; however, the average is 0.77%.

    No economist predict no change; therefore, I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.00% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.50 %




    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50%. We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.



    If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.







    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.

    If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDCHF
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6440 views
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11/22/21 - 07:31 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
11/18/21 - 04:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late November 18 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 3.75



    Today's trade plan

    We have varying forecasts today as follows: -

    High = 3.75
    Low = 3.5
    Prev = 3.5
    Avg = 3.63

    Therefore I will use a forecast of 3.75% therefore we will need to see a hike to the rates to 4.00% to take a trade.


    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5172 views
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11/18/21 - 02:40 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Turkey Turkish Rate Decision November 18 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 15.00



    Today's trade plan

    With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan, sending mixed messages about the Central bank's independence demonstrates the questionable behaviour of Turkeys leader. Normally leaders stay out of monetary policy.



    We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 16.0%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.



    If it remains at 16%, I'll take a buy
    If they cut to 14%, I'll take a sell.

    If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5223 views
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11/17/21 - 06:39 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories November 17 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1200 (bb)
    2) API Actual Crude = +700
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -750 (bb)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/16/21 - 03:46 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Hungary HUF Interest Rate November 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy

    July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    See the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 2.1



    Today's trade plan

    Today's official forecast is 2.1% which is a hike of 0.3%

    There are varying predictions

    Low is 1.95% to High is 2.7%
    The Average is 2.18%

    I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.0% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.5% or more.





    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    1913 views
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11/15/21 - 03:48 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
11/11/21 - 10:28 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Mexico MEX interest Rate November 11 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTE1JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 5.0



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.

    Seventeen economists predict a hike to 5.00% but five predict a hike further to 5.25%

    I'm using an average forecast of 5.05%

    Therefore if we see a hike to 5.00% I will not take a trade.

    If we see a hike of 5.05% or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 1000 pips.

    If we see no hike and the rate remains at 4.75% I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips

    Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.





    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/11/21 - 10:08 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Core CPI m/m November 10 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.30
    CPI (M/M) 0.60
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.90



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    3756 views
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  • JamesThatcher - Today, we saw a positive deviation from the headline number Core CPI M/M of 0.2%, supported by deviations on all secondary lines. We saw a lovely spike down about 30 pips before it pulled back slightly, then continuing and finally consolidating between 1.3490 to 1.3480 I cashed out reasonably early as it only just gave me a trigger, banking around 25 - 30 pips after about 30 seconds. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=66483;t=2021-11-10%2013:30:00.0;s=GBPUSD;r=S1 See the video at : https://youtu.be/66wr8kmLGns
11/10/21 - 07:13 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories November 10 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0.00
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    DOE Trade Plan
    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1600 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = -2500
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1250 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    2504 views
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11/09/21 - 03:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
11/05/21 - 05:13 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change November 5 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Unemployment Rate 4.7
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 450



    Today's trade plan

    Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction.

    I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/04/21 - 06:05 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate November 4 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.

    Check out the price action here.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ



    I will use forecasts of:

    CNB Repo Rate 2.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 2.00%, a 0.50% hike to the current Interest Rate. There are some opinions out there that they might increase more to 2.25% so I will only take a buy if we see a hike to 2.50%




    Tradable pairs

    EURCZK
    USDCZK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/04/21 - 04:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Official Bank Rate November 4 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

    See the report history here :
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.10



    Today's trade plan

    Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10% but many economists expect an increase to the rate to 0.25%. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.20% or more.


    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/02/21 - 02:17 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • What does the data mean to the market?

    The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

    There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 4 2021 A -0.2 Deviation from Unemployment created a wonderful move unopposed by the Employment Change number. NZD pairs strengthened for a good 5 mins!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49879/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5ODc5O3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0wNCUyMDIyOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TMTA

    February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.

    I saw some movement before the delivery of the news, which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early, but I held my nerve this time, and it paid off.

    Overall the price action was excellent.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26836/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2ODM2O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0wMiUyMDIxOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TNQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.4
    Unemployment Rate 3.9



    Today's trade plan

    If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.






    Tradable pairs

    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4382 views
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11/01/21 - 07:44 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • What does the data mean to the market?

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 3 2020 A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.

    Check out the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.10



    Today's trade plan

    I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/01/21 - 12:08 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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