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12/01/21 - 06:26 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Crude Oil Inventories December 1 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1450 (bb)
    2) API Actual Crude = -700
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0332 (bb)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +2200


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/29/21 - 08:16 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
11/24/21 - 11:55 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Sweden SWE Intrest rate November 25 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/13626/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEzNjI2O3Q9MjAxOS0xMi0xOSUyMDg6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFNFSztyPVM1

    December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/2446/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0NDY7dD0yMDE4LTEyLTIwJTIwODozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEU0VLO3I9UzMw




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 0.00



    Today's trade plan

    No expected change today so if we did see a change of +/- 0.25% basis points to the Interest Rate then I would take a trade accordingly. I would expect to see a prolonged move which should last some time.


    Tradable pairs

    EURSEK
    USDSEK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6227 views
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11/24/21 - 06:48 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories November 24 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0
    DOE Gasoline Inventories 0



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1800 (Bloomberg)
    2) API Actual Crude = +2300
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -400 (Bloomberg)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/23/21 - 04:21 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate November 24 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xOCUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzE

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTA3JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMTA




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.75



    Today's trade plan

    Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 0.75%. There are varying predictions; however, the average is 0.77%.

    No economist predict no change; therefore, I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.00% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.50 %




    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50%. We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.



    If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.







    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.

    If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDCHF
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6440 views
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11/22/21 - 07:31 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
11/18/21 - 04:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late November 18 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

    It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 3.75



    Today's trade plan

    We have varying forecasts today as follows: -

    High = 3.75
    Low = 3.5
    Prev = 3.5
    Avg = 3.63

    Therefore I will use a forecast of 3.75% therefore we will need to see a hike to the rates to 4.00% to take a trade.


    Tradable pairs

    USDZAR


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5172 views
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11/18/21 - 02:40 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Turkey Turkish Rate Decision November 18 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMyUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0wMy0xOCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFRSWTtyPVMxMA

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 15.00



    Today's trade plan

    With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan, sending mixed messages about the Central bank's independence demonstrates the questionable behaviour of Turkeys leader. Normally leaders stay out of monetary policy.



    We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 16.0%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.



    If it remains at 16%, I'll take a buy
    If they cut to 14%, I'll take a sell.

    If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5223 views
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11/17/21 - 06:39 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories November 17 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1200 (bb)
    2) API Actual Crude = +700
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -750 (bb)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/16/21 - 03:46 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Hungary HUF Interest Rate November 16 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0yNyUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREhVRjtyPVMy

    July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    See the price action here
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 2.1



    Today's trade plan

    Today's official forecast is 2.1% which is a hike of 0.3%

    There are varying predictions

    Low is 1.95% to High is 2.7%
    The Average is 2.18%

    I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.0% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.5% or more.





    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    1913 views
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11/15/21 - 03:48 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
11/11/21 - 10:28 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Mexico MEX interest Rate November 11 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0yNCUyMDE4OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTA4LTE1JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 5.0



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.

    Seventeen economists predict a hike to 5.00% but five predict a hike further to 5.25%

    I'm using an average forecast of 5.05%

    Therefore if we see a hike to 5.00% I will not take a trade.

    If we see a hike of 5.05% or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 1000 pips.

    If we see no hike and the rate remains at 4.75% I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips

    Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.





    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    2489 views
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11/11/21 - 10:08 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Core CPI m/m November 10 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0xMSUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TNQ

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0xMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0wNi0xMCUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.30
    CPI (M/M) 0.60
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.90



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    3756 views
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  • JamesThatcher - Today, we saw a positive deviation from the headline number Core CPI M/M of 0.2%, supported by deviations on all secondary lines. We saw a lovely spike down about 30 pips before it pulled back slightly, then continuing and finally consolidating between 1.3490 to 1.3480 I cashed out reasonably early as it only just gave me a trigger, banking around 25 - 30 pips after about 30 seconds. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=66483;t=2021-11-10%2013:30:00.0;s=GBPUSD;r=S1 See the video at : https://youtu.be/66wr8kmLGns
11/10/21 - 07:13 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories November 10 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65005/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1MDA1O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0xNCUyMDE1OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0.00
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -500



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    DOE Trade Plan
    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1600 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = -2500
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1250 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    2504 views
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11/09/21 - 03:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
11/05/21 - 05:13 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change November 5 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMyUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOC0wNiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1TMTA

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0wNy0wMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Unemployment Rate 4.7
    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 450



    Today's trade plan

    Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction.

    I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    1540 views
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11/04/21 - 06:05 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate November 4 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.

    Check out the price action here.

    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ



    I will use forecasts of:

    CNB Repo Rate 2.25



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 2.00%, a 0.50% hike to the current Interest Rate. There are some opinions out there that they might increase more to 2.25% so I will only take a buy if we see a hike to 2.50%




    Tradable pairs

    EURCZK
    USDCZK


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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11/04/21 - 04:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Official Bank Rate November 4 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

    See the report history here :
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.10



    Today's trade plan

    Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10% but many economists expect an increase to the rate to 0.25%. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.20% or more.


    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    2734 views
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11/02/21 - 02:17 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • What does the data mean to the market?

    The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

    There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    May 4 2021 A -0.2 Deviation from Unemployment created a wonderful move unopposed by the Employment Change number. NZD pairs strengthened for a good 5 mins!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49879/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5ODc5O3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0wNCUyMDIyOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TMTA

    February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.

    I saw some movement before the delivery of the news, which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early, but I held my nerve this time, and it paid off.

    Overall the price action was excellent.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26836/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2ODM2O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0wMiUyMDIxOjQ1OjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOWkQ7cj1TNQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.4
    Unemployment Rate 3.9



    Today's trade plan

    If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.






    Tradable pairs

    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4382 views
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11/01/21 - 07:44 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • What does the data mean to the market?

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 3 2020 A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.

    Check out the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ


    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Statement 0.10



    Today's trade plan

    I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4125 views
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11/01/21 - 12:08 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
10/27/21 - 06:44 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories October 27 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMiUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0xNSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    DOE Trade Plan
    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +2318
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2235 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +0530


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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10/27/21 - 06:23 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Canada Overnight Rate October 27 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

    See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.25



    Today's trade plan

    All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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10/26/21 - 04:52 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Australia CPI q/q October 27 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

    The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/43386/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQzMzg2O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0yOCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA

    January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28145/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4MTQ1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yNyUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA

    July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/20676/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIwNjc2O3Q9MjAyMC0wNy0yOSUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 0.5
    CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 1.8
    CPI (Q/Q) 0.8
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.1



    Today's trade plan

    If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDCAD
    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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10/25/21 - 02:00 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
10/22/21 - 04:29 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Turkey Turkish Rate Decision October 21 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

    With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.

    Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS05LTIzJTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVFJZO3I9TTE

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 17.00



    Today's trade plan

    With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan dismissing three of the monetary policymakers at Turkeys Central Bank, it is strongly believed this was a deliberate move to ensure another rate cut today to boost credits and exports. Although such interference is widely frowned upon, I'm interested in how much they will cut by how the market will react as the Lira is already at an all-time low.

    We have varying estimates for a cut today between 17.0% and 17.5%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on 1.0 on either side of this.

    If it remains at 18%, I'll take a buy
    If they cut to 16%, I'll take a sell.

    If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances.



    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5405 views
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  • JamesThatcher - Another shock to the markets today was when the highly anticipated cut to the Turkish interest didn't happen; the markets quickly revalued the Turkish Lira's value. We saw a whopping 2000 pips in a few seconds: what a lovely move, a great trade. See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=65055;t=2021-10-21%2011:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S1 See the video at : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0RuBKpydfk
10/22/21 - 02:54 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Russia RU Central Bank Key Rate October 22 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of Russia's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 23 2021 A 0.25 change from the forecast caused 172 pips spike in the first minute. Nice.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/41703/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQxNzAzO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIzJTIwMTA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFJVQjtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    Central Bank Key Rate 7.0



    Today's trade plan

    Theres varying estimates on forcast but the mostly weighted to a change to tha rate today of 7.00% a hike from the previous 6.75%

    I'll take a buy on a +0.5 deviation from forcast so if they hike more than expected I will buy the RUB (Selling the USDRUB)
    I will take a sell on a -0.25 deviation from forcast so if they do not change the rate and it remains at 6.75% i will sell the RUB (Buying the USDRUB)


    Tradable pairs

    USDRUB


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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10/20/21 - 06:32 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Crude Oil Inventories October 20 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > 0
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -3500

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    DOE Trade Plan
    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +3300
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -950 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -3500


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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10/19/21 - 10:47 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United Kingdom Core CPI y/y October 20 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1NMQ

    January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIwJTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.0
    CPI (M/M) 0.4
    CPI (Y/Y) 3.2



    Today's trade plan

    If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.



    Tradable pairs

    EURGBP
    GBPAUD
    GBPCAD
    GBPNZD
    GBPUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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10/19/21 - 03:08 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • Hungary Interest Rate October 19 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS03LTI3JTIwMTI6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNESFVGO3I9UzI

    July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/20495/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIwNDk1O3Q9MjAyMC03LTIxJTIwMTI6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNESFVGO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Base Rate Announcement 1.8



    Today's trade plan

    Today we have the following forecast ranges.



    High Forecast = 1.95
    Low Forecast = 1.65
    Official Estimate = 1.8
    Average = 1.81
    Previous intetest rate = 1.65


    Looking to take a trade 0.1% deviation from the official forecast so 1.7 to sell and 1.9 to buy






    Tradable pairs

    EURHUF
    USDHUF


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    2649 views
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10/18/21 - 07:19 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
10/15/21 - 05:05 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Core Retail Sales m/m October 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

    A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

    There are many many lines of data to this report. It’s easy to let the other numbers cloud your judgment.

    I focus only on The core month-on-month Figure (MoM)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    February 17 2021 Last month Retail sales gave a big upward surprise of +4.9 from the forecast, which is a very large deviation. The overshoot came from the $600 cash given to low earners from the Federal Stimulus package that aimed to boost consumer spending. This was a one-off event so we need to look at this reaction as not normal, It didn't take the market by surprise as it would have in normal times.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28931/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTMxO3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    January 15 2021 Back in January, we had a more "normal" deviation of around -1.2 from the forecast, but the move was almost non-existent.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTE1JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Retail Sales - Ex-Autos (M/M) 0.50



    Today's trade plan

    I'll take a trade if we see a 2.0% from the Core Retail Sales M/M figure with no conflicts from any of the other lines.



    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4802 views
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10/14/21 - 06:39 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Crude Oil Inventories October 14 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1250
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -4600

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1100 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +5200
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = 1250 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -4600


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4740 views
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10/13/21 - 04:53 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +0
  • United States Core CPI m/m October 13 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
    There are 4 lines of data.

    CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y)


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS04LTExJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1

    July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS03LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x

    June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI - Core (M/M) 0.2
    CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4
    CPI (M/M) 0.3
    CPI (Y/Y) 5.3



    Today's trade plan

    The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

    Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

    I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

    Secondary Lines -
    CPI - Core (Y/Y)
    CPI - (M/M)
    CPI - (Y/Y


    If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

    With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    3142 views
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10/12/21 - 08:44 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
10/08/21 - 04:42 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change October 8 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

    NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

    The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

    All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTMlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE

    August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS04LTYlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw

    July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS03LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE




    I will use forecasts of:

    Change in NonFarm Payrolls 500
    Unemployment Rate 5.1



    Today's trade plan

    This report is nicely in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.

    Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction. Anything between those figures, I would expect to have a poor reaction as we want the markets to be sure which way this will affect the Fed's decision over monetary policy.

    I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.

    This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


    Tradable pairs

    EURUSD
    GBPUSD
    USDJPY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4185 views
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10/08/21 - 03:10 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +12
  • Mexico MEX interest Rate September 30 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.




    Historic deviations and their outcome

    June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Njg3O3Q9MjAyMS02LTI0JTIwMTg6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNETVhOO3I9UzE

    November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/24308/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI0MzA4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMS0xMiUyMDE5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE1YTjtyPVMx

    August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9510/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTk1MTA7dD0yMDE5LTgtMTUlMjAxODowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RNWE47cj1TMQ




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 4.75



    Today's trade plan

    Twenty-five economists predict a no change whereas one is suggesting a cut to 4.5 which gives us an outside chance of a trade.

    I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradable move.




    Tradable pairs

    USDMXN


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    6141 views
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10/07/21 - 08:04 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Non-Farm Employment Change October 8 2021
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10/06/21 - 06:29 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Crude Oil Inventories October 6 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
    DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

    DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +4700
    DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -500

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    Forecasts and API.
    1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1000 BB
    2) API Actual Crude = +1000
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +400 BB
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4470 views
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10/05/21 - 05:03 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate October 6 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS04LTE4JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMQ

    November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw

    August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTgtNyUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw




    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate 0.50



    Today's trade plan

    Today The Markets are expecting a minimum of a 0.25 basis point (BPS) hike.
    So an actual outcome of a 0.50% interest rate

    One economist is predicting no change, so rates will remain at 0.25%







    If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.25% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.



    If we see a change to the interest rates to 0.75% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.


    Tradable pairs

    AUDNZD
    EURNZD
    GBPNZD
    NZDCHF
    NZDJPY
    NZDUSD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    3653 views
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10/04/21 - 04:42 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
10/01/21 - 08:11 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate September 30 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?


    In the Czech Republic, the benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks are allowed to place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.


    Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.


    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.



    Historic deviations and their outcome


    February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from forecast which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have given plenty of opportunities to enter.


    Check out the price action here.


    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ





    I will use forecasts of:


    CNB Repo Rate 1.25




    Today's trade plan


    Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 1.25%, which is a 0.50% hike to the rate. All economists are unanimous of this outcome, but I'll be ready to trade if the actual result is not as predicted.


    Take a trade if we see a 0.25% deviation from the 1.25% forecast to take a buy or sell.



    Tradable pairs


    EURCZK

    USDCZK



    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!


    Good luck!!


    James Thatcher


    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    5302 views
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  • JamesThatcher - Today we saw the CNB hike the Repo Rate higher than all the economists predicted. They hiked the rates by 0.75 basis points, the highest rate hike since 1997. Giving us a great sell opportunity on USDCZK with a nice staggered move down 140 pips over the next 90 seconds. An excellent trade See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=64284;t=2021-9-30%2012:30:00.0;s=USDCZK;r=S1 See the video at : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY00KdZSrqs
09/29/21 - 05:54 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Crude Oil Inventories September 29 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMiUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

    September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0xNSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories +500
    DOE Gasoline Inventories 0

    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2150 (BB)
    2) API Actual Crude = +4100
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1500 (BB)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = +3600

    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher
    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    4164 views
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09/28/21 - 11:36 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
09/24/21 - 01:09 PM JamesThatcher created a new post.
  • Account: 42 SHARES. +6
  • Turkey Turkish Rate Decision September 23 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

    A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw

    December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x

    October 22 2020 Today we saw a -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/23557/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIzNTU3O3Q9MjAyMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x




    I will use forecasts of:

    Benchmark Rate 19



    Today's trade plan

    22 out of 23 economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%

    1 Says it'll move to 18.5%. It'll be a shock if its anything less than 19%

    If we get a change of 0.5 in either direction, I'll take a trade.





    Tradable pairs

    EURTRY
    USDTRY


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
    11978 views
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  • JamesThatcher - Yesterday we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate. With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after. Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked. Happy Friday, Everyone :-) See Chart here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=63188;t=2021-9-23%2011:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S1 See the video at : https://youtu.be/yQa3n-Hh0ZY
09/23/21 - 05:18 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late September 23 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
    We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report. Historic deviations and their outcome

    April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

    March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

    See charts here.
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x

    I will use forecasts of:

    Interest Rate Decision 3.5

    Today's trade plan
    If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction, then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.

    Tradable pairs
    USDZAR

    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
    Good luck!!
    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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09/22/21 - 07:00 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • United States Crude Oil Inventories September 22 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

    Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

    There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE

    August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62215/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyMjE1O3Q9MjAyMS04LTI1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx

    August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.


    Check out the price action here:
    https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61866/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODY2O3Q9MjAyMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx




    I will use forecasts of:

    DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4500
    DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000



    Today's trade plan

    If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

    Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts

    1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2450 (BB)
    2) API Actual Crude = -6100
    3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1472 (BB)
    4) API Actual Gasoline = -0400


    Tradable pairs

    USDBNT
    USDOIL


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate August 18 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate
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  • Canadian Employment Change 12 March 2021

    We could grab some pips from this report today, it’s nice to have this rare occurrence where this doesn’t come out with the highly anticipated NFP report. Which usually comes out at the same time. Canadian
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  • US Crude Oil Inventories March 10 2021

    There are 4 main lines of data: -

    DOE Crude
    DOE Gasoline
    API Actual Crude
    API Actual Gasoline

    Remember that Oil is a commodity. More oil is bad for the market price and vice versa. A positive devi
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  • Subject - the United States Consumer Price Index (US CPI) 10 March 2021

    This report is coming back into focus, in fact, Inflation around the world is being watched more closely than in previous months.

    Today there are 4 main lines of data release
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  • US Non-Farm Payrolls March 05 2021
    Once a super hot, big mover this data is not so much in focus now. However it is still some of the most important data the US publishes and IF, and that's a BIG if, the key important components deviate harmoniously with
    9790 views
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  • US Crude Oil Inventories March 03, 2021

    DOE Crude Forecast is -0928
    DOE Gasoline is -2300
    API Actual Crude is +7400
    API Actual Gasoline is -9900

    I'll use a forecast of -/+3000 for Crude oil
    Will therefore use a forecast of = -5000 for Gasoline
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03/01/21 - 05:07 AM JamesThatcher created a new post.
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  • -----ISM Manufacturing PMI - 01 March 2021-----

    Forecasts...
    High= 60.3
    Low= 57
    Avg= 58.67
    Median= 58.6
    In last 4 months...

    Nov +3.5 gave +61 pips 1 min ( 17.4 pips per 1.0 dev)
    Seee Charts -> https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar
    6 views
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